Europe experienced widespread relief on Monday, as the crisis sparked by the introduction of a new 28-article proposal for ending the war appeared – momentarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "substantial progress" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its countermove: another massive barrage of aerial bombardment on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Negotiation and Warfare
The chain of contrasting events captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, diplomatic battles are conducted: positive announcements are released from multiple capitals. Immense energy is allocated on managing specific proposals. By night, Moscow forcefully demonstrates the world that, for them, war remains the main instrument for achieving "resolution".
Nighttime Reality
As military strikes developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the immediate reality of Ukraine's defenselessness was laid bare. Ukraine is equipped to monitor projectile deployments from across the border, a capacity enabled by up-to-date information. From observation points, defense planes that had been scrambled to counter approaching cruise missiles roared overhead – sophisticated military planes supplied to Ukraine by European allies.
Shortly after, Kyiv's missile defense engaged: multiple launches targeted at a incoming threat. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably supplied through partner states. Every firing creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The moment of terror quickly transforms into resigned acknowledgment: possibly the incoming missile won't hit its mark this time, sparing the city from devastation and additional electricity failures.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a automatic firearm fired at a drone somewhere nearby, part of a rapid response unit – almost certainly imported technology. Unfortunately, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
Periodically, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv awoke to the early updates: several casualties, damage and infrastructure problems in multiple buildings as a result of the night's assault. As customarily, everyone still continued their routines – living the war. But those entire period encapsulated Ukraine's essential dependence on external assistance – a need that neighboring countries are demonstrably unable to replace in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The 28-point plan from Washington generated strong feelings, discussion and serious worry – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's major integrity crisis in years. Yet, we have seen this script before, after earlier high-level meetings and multilateral gatherings.
Every new approach from American administration unfolds according to the same pattern: a negotiation push against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with allied governments, manages to fend off. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, undoubtedly, persist.
Political Considerations
It is convenient to criticize specific actors of consistently pushing Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the complete picture. Washington operates on a premise familiar among experienced diplomats: you cannot secure via talks what you have been unable to protect through force. The American government believes that it is impossible to force Russia to relinquish the land that it currently occupies in Ukraine's occupied territories.
The challenge is that while accepting these circumstances, Washington does nothing to discourage Russia, through diplomacy or military means, from thinking that the situation will not change more in its favour in the near future.
Conflicting Perspectives
Therefore, Russian leadership is certain that time is on his side – that Ukraine and its allies are nearing depletion. Their motivation to accept conditions that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is almost completely absent. There may be many attempts to end hostilities, but they will continue as long as Russia's government remains highly assured in the result.
On the contrary, Kyiv believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing lives and land but preventing a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its advantage.
Existing Situation
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a armistice. Now, individual motivations are coming into play: leadership ambitions to broker a ceasefire and obtain worldwide acknowledgment, and the government's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any initiative Kyiv finds unworkable, so that their focus does not move to homefront challenges. And although their objective will now be much harder after current events, it remains quite doubtful that this will change their overall approach.
These conflicting dynamics are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a mere seven days to kill the 28 points of the current initiative. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, pushback by Ukraine and the rest of Europe, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, recent disclosures, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are approaching, Kyiv, London and other European capitals should draw one fundamental conclusion: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off negotiation assaults from Washington that are rooted in Kremlin requirements and show certain reluctance to alter the situation, if they maintain solidarity and enhance their military capacity at a considerably quicker tempo. If they do, neither external pressure nor military threats will be able to overcome them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capacity to defend against evening bombardments will, for the coming months, primarily depend on ongoing international assistance.
