A decade following the UK stumbled into a hasty referendum that divided the country and unleashed disorder, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
The government and voters entered unwittingly Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That is the message from two prominent commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have teamed up to examine the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Establishments Unprepared
The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have determined that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a potentially contentious and transformative public vote.
"The crucial insight of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that stuff can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum very quickly," O’Toole stated. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Released Volume Seeks to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any structural alteration in a book, Examining Irish Unification, published by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the matter with a tour of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What concerns everyone, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," said O’Toole.
"We do not want a referendum on a binary, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you end up with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity exactly what it is that they have gained."
Governmental Mandate
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would support.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups argue that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called Ireland’s Future has garnered backing, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the possibility, resulting in ambiguity when or if there might be a national vote.
Absence of Serious Debate
Partisan language supporting and opposing unity has hidden the absence of serious debate, noted the journalist.
"Individuals are often for or against the idea but the concrete planning which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in universities but hardly any elected officials or activists seek to involve themselves with even the basics. As an example, which kind of country should be desired? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer endorses unity or the status quo. Both writes two articles that aim for objectivity in laying out the rationale for a united Ireland and the case opposing it, assembling financial and social statistics, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments range over national emblems, duties, medical care, retirement funds, public liabilities and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The goal is to educate and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the topic but there is still lacking a debate," stated the writer. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist valid points on either side."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the Republic of Ireland, where the electorate claim they favour unity but reject paying higher taxes or adopting a new flag to reflect unionists' UK heritage.
"The Irish government does need to establish what the offer from nationalist groups is other than just declaring: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we value you'," remarked the commentator.
Likelihood of Public Vote
The journalist considers a referendum in his lifetime is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a bad or a feckless official who says: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and unionists have credible, legitimate perspectives, he stated. "Somebody will succeed in this matter and somebody will in the end be defeated but all factions has got valuable insights to acquire from the alternative positions."
Appeal for Wider Debate
Westminster should participate in the debate, stated the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a British issue equally as it is an Irish matter."
